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Aiming for Sim Stats

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Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:52 pm

So the issue of stat padding has reared its head again and is yet again a concern. There are a number of players this season who have had outstanding years BUT the patterns of their scoring does suggest that their owners are forcing them into some of these positions in order to race for end of season awards. This is not in keeping with sim play. We have to find a way of handling this that is as least disruptive as possible but still prevents a game exploit. Ideally we find a solution where a real MVP emerges each season rather than a player that has been forced the ball in an unrealistic fashion.

The biggest offending examples this year are:

Rushing:

Dalvin Cook - 26 TDs (86% of carries, 87% of Team rushing TDs - Backup RB Latavious Murray with 1 TD)

Ezekiel Elliot - 27 TDs (86% of carries, 96% of Team rushing TDs - Backup Mike Davis with 1 TD)

If I put this in comparison, LaDainlan Tomlinson's record breaking season he had 87.5% of the teams rushing TDs when he ran in 28. However the NFL has a higher snap count per game than we do and he did this in 348/477 carries by the teams HBs (72% of HB carries). This is also unlikely in the current NFL with more HB rotation and three down backs are even more rare than they were.

I suggest we should be aiming for:

1. No HB with over 80% Carries
2. No HB with over 80% team rushing TDs

Receiving:

The obvious:

Will Snead IV - 94 REC (35% Receptions) & 27TDs (61% of receiving TDs)

The others pushing the boundaries:

Ray Sears (31% Receptions, 48% of TDs)

Tyreek Hill (32% Receptions)

Robby Anderson (31% Receptions, 59 % TDs)

Dede Westbrook (36% Receptions, 52% TDs)

Michael Thomas (52% Team TDs)

In real life, the receiving leader this year, DeAndre Hopkins, had 32% of targets and scored 46% of the Texans receiving TDs. Antionio Brown (26%,31%) & Julio Jones (26%,14%) got no where near these numbers. Even Calvin Johnson in 2011 had only 23% or receptions and 39% of TDs.

Interestingly, only 3 Dallas and Titans WRs have actually caught a pass this year Only 4 have on many teams. The same can be said for many other teams and we should look at using more rotation and subsitituting to get people on and of the field more realistically.

I suggest we should be aiming for:

1. No WR/TE with more than 30% Team Receptions
2. No WR/TE with more than 45% Team Receiving TDs

So how do we police this? 

I think it needs to be reviewed on a 5 game basis (Weeks 5,10,15, Playoffs). If a player has breached this then I suggest that his owner gets reminded AND his Injury rating takes a 15 point hit for 5 games. The player can carry on being forced the ball if the owner wishes, but at an increased risk. It they are still in an offending position after 10 games, another 15 point hit occurs and the same after 15 and the playoffs. This seems like a natural and sim way of handling the situation to me but I would encourage the thoughts of others. Defence is a much more difficult one to control, but I do feel there is a combination of not enough rotation, fatigue and injury in our league.


Last edited by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:27 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by ParaAUT on Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:02 pm

I kind of like the borders for rushing/receiving %. Not sure in regards to injury rating, as it seems to have no effect - players with 95+ always seem to get injured, some others not at all. And I wouldn't be happy if I'm the person who has to control it.

Are some slider adjustments in play? I see that both pass blocking and run blocking is too good, or defense (tackling, block shedding) not good enough. Rushing needs to be limited by a lot, passing maybe a bit. So may makes sense to adjust these sliders?
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

I think you can adjust sliders all you want but some of this is users forcing the ball into their players hands who are best suited to win awards .You can do this on offence but not defence so easily.

I don't think too much editing would be required. Most players would police it themselves just for the threat of injury, but having a potential 30 point knock on an injury rating for a star player, you would think twice about forcing a ball their direction if contact was looming.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by FraserOliver17 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:58 pm

@ParaAUT wrote:I kind of like the borders for rushing/receiving %. Not sure in regards to injury rating, as it seems to have no effect - players with 95+ always seem to get injured, some others not at all. And I wouldn't be happy if I'm the person who has to control it.

Are some slider adjustments in play? I see that both pass blocking and run blocking is too good, or defense (tackling, block shedding) not good enough. Rushing needs to be limited by a lot, passing maybe a bit. So may makes sense to adjust these sliders?
find a moment in my season where my run or pass blocking has been too good please haha
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by brza37 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:55 pm

I'm all for sim stats but I have been told multiple times by many different league members who are still here or have since left that we shouldn't make the rules too complicated, especially involving gameplay.

Receptions and carries are one thing but TD% is getting carried away. Maybe I trust our league members too much but I believe that with TDs guys are basically just trying to win games. If a guy is open for a TD or breaking away with a run in a close game I don't see a way to limit that without disrupting the game. Even in blowouts usually the TDs happen in the first half when you're just trying to win and build a lead. Once the backups come in in the 4th quarter then you shouldn't be scoring anyway with a 29+ point lead so the backups don't get TDs.

Like I posted in the chat earlier today, when you look at the stats compared to M17 we are definitely improved/closer to sim. No 2000 yard players, no 30 TD players. I think its funny that last year there was hardly a word about it and now its a daily topic. Also anybody complaining should take a long look at their own stats first. We all have room for improvement.

And as a league we can and should do something to try to improve but I think lowering the current rule from 40% to 30% receptions and enforcing new rules on carry % and TD %s will just get too complicated.

I also posted in the chat a few days ago that we will bump up fatigue sliders next season to hopefully force people to rotate players more often. This is something I feel we should test in the preseason next year before making more complicated rules about distribution percentages.
One more thing we also have to consider is that here we just don't get the snap counts to truly mimic NFL stats, unless we're willing to play games that last 1:30-1:45 hours and thats not an option. We could increase defense and lower offense sliders to lower offensive stats but we also have high sack and INT numbers as is. And as long as we have varying player skill levels throughout the league some guys are just going to dominate the league leaders table and awards anyway. If anyone has slider suggestions I'm always happy to try them out in the preseason however that would mean longer preseasons so we can get a good trial for H2H sliders and most people want us to skip to the regular season as fast as possible.

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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:53 pm

So in saying nothing needs to be done are you saying the stats of Snead, Elliot and Cook are ok to be repeated in future seasons? I feel like you are dismissing an idea backed up by stats too easily.

I don't agree that there is more complaining this year than previous, its the same every season just nothing ever changes. Suspending the owners never does anything either as their players still accrue stats.

Even if you ignore the TD% and just enforce a more realistic carry/reception limit that will have enough of a knock on effect on TDs that it makes things more realistic. Im not asking people to run it out at the 1 to avoid scoring with a player but people DO force the ball into the hands of their stat leaders when they are having good years. They don't sub out HBs even after 80 yard runs that get stopped at the 2 and they will force a slant to their number 1 receiver (Snead has had about 10 of these this year). 

I honestly think if you introduced this it just encourages people to think that fraction more about how they are playing. I don't think its too complicated and is it not worth a shot after multiple seasons of unrealistic stats?

P.s. preseason is not the place to trial fatigue sliders with the variable number of quarters that the backups play
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by xxeternalxx on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:14 pm

I'm a player who can on occasion get up to a decent lead early. 

Once I do, I've always felt it impolite to keep passing so I'll go run heavy from that point on and only pass where necessary, or if the defense dictates it.

If I subbed my hb out and a back up couldn't sustain a drive, or cost me a turnover etc, it might give my opponent a chance to get back into the game, and leave me scrambling to recover ground.

My general rule of thumb is if I'm up big I'll sub zeke out in the fourth. I'll also sub zeke out if he's tired. I try to keep a fairly even pass to rush TD ratio but really I go for whatever the defence gives me. 

On that same train of thought, when people stack the box to stop the run I will attack them deep, which is why my faster receiver has a healthy amount of yards though not a very high (by comparison) number of receptions. I wouldn't want to be calculating percentages throughout the weeks trying to figure out if I can use my full offense or not...it seems a bit too much to me.

In the past, unsim play has always been quite obvious and dealt with appropriately, I think that's the most painless way to carry on.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:24 pm

I'm sure you can appreciate when looking at those numbers above that the % of carries Zeke gets is pretty high and way beyond what you see in the NFL. I'm not saying it's deliberate in every case but a grandmother with a Zimmer frame could get a 4 YPC behind that OLine.

Sub him out on 1st down every so often and set carrying to conservative whilst your backup is in. Tiny little adjustments to play more realistically. He has been force fed the ball when you look at the numbers ET, even if you didn't mean to.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:30 pm

In response to both you and Brza, we all aim to play 'sim' but how do you know if you are if you don't check yourself and your stats.

Anyway, with this suggestion you can choose to carry on playing and ignore the stats, but if your player is in dangerous territory then it comes at a cost and a higher chance of injury. I think that's a fair way of dealing with it where people can pay as much attention to it as they want whilst still keeping it fair for everyone else.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by brza37 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:58 pm

@dwevans wrote:So in saying nothing needs to be done are you saying the stats of Snead, Elliot and Cook are ok to be repeated in future seasons? I feel like you are dismissing an idea backed up by stats too easily.  
I didn't say we won't do anything. I said we will increase the fatigue sliders.

@dwevans wrote:
I don't agree that there is more complaining this year than previous, its the same every season just nothing ever changes. Suspending the owners never does anything either as their players still accrue stats.
Ok. Its irrelevant anyway but I personally didn't hear as many people complaining about stats even though they were much worse last year.

@dwevans wrote:
Even if you ignore the TD% and just enforce a more realistic carry/reception limit that will have enough of a knock on effect on TDs that it makes things more realistic. Im not asking people to run it out at the 1 to avoid scoring with a player but people DO force the ball into the hands of their stat leaders when they are having good years. They don't sub out HBs even after 80 yard runs that get stopped at the 2 and they will force a slant to their number 1 receiver (Snead has had about 10 of these this year). 

I honestly think if you introduced this it just encourages people to think that fraction more about how they are playing. I don't think its too complicated and is it not worth a shot after multiple seasons of unrealistic stats?
I understand your opinion. My opinion is it will be complicated to keep track of during the flow of the game and be difficult for guys to adhere to the rules. People have argued that the 40% reception rule is too complicated, lol. No point in arguing our opinions though. We both said our piece. Just see what the rest of the league thinks now.

@dwevans wrote:
P.s. preseason is not the place to trial fatigue sliders with the variable number of quarters that the backups play
Yes, I know. With the preseason I was referring to gameplay sliders "We could increase defense and lower offense sliders to lower offensive stats". Fatigue sliders will be adjusted no matter what come next season.

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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by ParaAUT on Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:42 pm

Top priority:
Get the league full and as few as possible cpu games, they are messing up most of the stats.


I absolutely don't like the award hunting, but as I looked through the historical stats in the game, I found out that it's not that severe. Actually only the receiving TD's break the NFL records by a good margin, all other stats are in line with very good seasons, but not the best in history. So I can live with it.

Anyway, we should definitely increate fatigue, so there will be 2-3 more snaps for backups. Makes the game more interesting anyway.
I wouldn't mind if we adjust run/pass blocking just slightly, although I don't think that will change much. Some teams just have absolutely ridiculous OL's and that's their huge advantage, can't really do that much against it.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:56 pm

@ParaAUT wrote:Top priority:
Get the league full and as few as possible cpu games, they are messing up most of the stats.


I absolutely don't like the award hunting, but as I looked through the historical stats in the game, I found out that it's not that severe. Actually only the receiving TD's break the NFL records by a good margin, all other stats are in line with very good seasons, but not the best in history. So I can live with it.

Anyway, we should definitely increate fatigue, so there will be 2-3 more snaps for backups. Makes the game more interesting anyway.
I wouldn't mind if we adjust run/pass blocking just slightly, although I don't think that will change much. Some teams just have absolutely ridiculous OL's and that's their huge advantage, can't really do that much against it.

Maybe consistent with individual records, but in those seasons that running backs got that many TDs how many did the team get overall? I don't think one RB ever got over 90% of teams TDs or over 85% of carries...?
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by zill_kills on Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:57 pm

im with brza on this the only thing I would do differently is not suspend the coach but the padded player for 1 2 3 games ect depending on repeat violations and so on. like they do in nfl for peds or substance abuse. its the same thing almost. they dont ban the team they ban the player. That way others have time to catch ground and so on.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:12 pm

The only problem with that I feel is you can end up picking on people for individual games but players are allowed to have great weeks. It also depends on who looks at what etc.

The fairest system looks at all players and has clear thresholds. If at week 5 you are over 30% of the teams receptions or 80% of carries, your player and all other players who are in the same situation take a 15 point injury hit. 

In your system i could see one player getting suspended but 4 others who are in very similar situations being ignored.

No one had batted an eyelid at Zeke or Dalvin all year because Snead has stole all the attention, but their stats are just as, if not more unrealistic. Arbritrary bans for "repeat violations" does invite a degree of bias, but if some simple thresholds are on paper for everyone to see then they can police it themselves before getting to a spot OR just play a more risky game. At the moment there is no risk and only reward to be had.

This still allows for some players to have record breaking years, but some others will fall by the wayside in the process as users change their play style or people get injured.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by xxeternalxx on Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:31 pm

I think when considering violations, the opponent should also be taken into consideration. Having a record breaking year when you've had 12 CPU games for example, is sketchy at best because you can largely choose how you want to score against the cpu (unless you're the Bengals).

Take my own season as the converse example, yes Zeke has been worked hard, but he's done it against the Eagles (#1 run d in the league, #2 top D overall), the Vikings(#4), Panthers(#6), 49ers(#9), as well as Jags and Colts who are just outside the top 10.

One is an accomplishment to my mind, and the other, perhaps less so.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:37 pm

This isn't a tit for tat, its just a discussion on how we can improve how we manage this. 

Yes Zeke has had a good year, but other players on both sides should have had more opportunities and so both players should have had less good of a year regardless of opponent. This isn't MUT where you field your best team every down. This is sim and squad rotation should be a real thing.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by ParaAUT on Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:10 am

So, let's go one step back. Which stats do we want realistically?

I did a quick statistical analysis between NFL stats this season and our league stats (I know not all games played, but still), only with the top 5 guys to keep it quick.
Passing Yards, Rushing Yards and Receiving Yards are all somehow similar to NFL standards. Rushing Yards are a bit more than NFL, but it was not the best RB year. I'm not talking about TD's here.

We have fewer attempts/receptions, so the averages are higher of course. We have about 2/3 of the NFL passing attemps, and about 85-90% of rushing attempts. Regarding receptions we have about 2/3 of the NFL receptions too (except Snead with >90%).

In terms of TD's we have about 2 x the NFL stats. For passing TD's the stats are quite ok, for receiving TD's only Snead is out of realism.

So my quick findings:
- We have too many rushing attempts (at least by the top guys)
- We have too many rushing TD's


BUT the main question is now - what are we aiming for? We won't get realistic snap counts, so something in the stats has to be way off. We will not get realistic tackles, receptions, etc. without having the correct amount of snaps. I would guess we are at about 2/3 of snaps compared to NFL, so we should continue from here. Even if we would get realistic snaps, people would take 20 sacks a game and go deep 50 times instead of having a realistic game and have shorter passes.

So it's a game and we won't have all stats sim-style. What is our main focus? Getting the top guys right? Getting the averages right? Get the attempts distribution in the teams right? We won't get everything...



Did anyone try to play around with the tackling slider? Especially rushing numbers are highly dependant on huge runs. Mostly runs are stopped within -5 to +5 yards, but every few runs there's a big one and guys like Elliott, Cook, Mixon, etc. are just gone for 40-90 yards and the unrealistic yards are there. If there would be less big runs, I'm sure the averages would be much better and there's more room to pass a bit more.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by FraserOliver17 on Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:35 am

could always increase the speed threshold?
or decrease it. I don't know what it's at now or if it will make a difference.
wouldn't say to increase tackling, but perhaps decrease run blocking a tad?
of course, if you can't run the ball you're gonna pass, which will increase passing numbers.
the high rushing yards is likely due to the top guys getting blowouts and being forced to run the clock, thus accumulating more rushing yards.
Why handicap the less capable rushing teams because the good teams are good?
Just leave everything as it is and all of us Git Gud
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by ParaAUT on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:27 am

@FraserOliver17 wrote:the high rushing yards is likely due to the top guys getting blowouts and being forced to run the clock, thus accumulating more rushing yards.

Not exactly. Just 2 examples:
Vikings, Week 17: 16 rushes, 162 yards, 5 TD's
Cowboys, Week 16: 15 rushes, 229 yards, 2 TD's

I get it, these 2 have each one of the best RB's in the game and are both maybe top 3 in "rushing skill", so they will have better numbers than most in the league. Additionally I have to mention that these games were very balanced, so they have about the same number of passing attempts, so there is absolutely nothing to critize here. The only problem is that every 3 or 4 runs it's a big one and likely goes for a TD. If we could limit that to a 20 yard gain instead of a 60 yard TD, then stats would be way better.

Don't know what's the main reason. Overpowered special moves, bad tackling, bad pursuit, overpowered run blocking, just OL too good, etc.?
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:29 am

I think the most important thing is getting the touches right. That will fix part of the problem. I think we have to fix this before we tinker with sliders in all honesty otherwise the stats are skewed.

Your backup should touch the ball once for every 4 touches your starting RB makes. Thats not a hard stat to keep a count of and the increased opportunities for the backups should get them a few more TDs and reduce some of the issue. 

Sub them in manually, adjust your auto subs or give those guys a few formations that are theirs in formation subs.

This includes the red zone. Look at your backs and use their skill set appropriately. Murray for example is just as good if not a better short yardage/red zone RB than Cook and should have seen more reps in heavy and goalline packages.

Equally with receivers. There is no reason to only have 3 WRs on your roster catch a pass all year. Even receivers 6th in the depth chart in the NFL expect a few catches each year. Spread the ball around and look at the skills of your backups. Mike Evans catching a screen is not going to be as effective as a smaller more agile player doing so, just like Jakeem Grant is going to struggle in the red zone. 

Most of the league are now very experienced players and there really isn't any excuse for not getting this right.

Spreading touches will almost certainly fix half the problem and all my suggestion in the OP does is give people some encouragement to do that themselves or face some reasonable consequences. You can look at the drop in injury like "wear and tear" from your player being forced the ball above the recommended amount. Personally I think its quite a sim way of doing it and would nudge people in the right direction.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by Mattanite on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:33 am

@dwevans wrote:
P.s. preseason is not the place to trial fatigue sliders with the variable number of quarters that the backups play
Yes, I know. With the preseason I was referring to gameplay sliders "We could increase defense and lower offense sliders to lower offensive stats". Fatigue sliders will be adjusted no matter what come next season.

If the sliders are adjusted then I suggest either the game length or clock length increased too. That way there is a lower YPC or YPA but run Nos and receptions are up.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by Mattanite on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:42 am

@dwevans wrote:
Equally with receivers. There is no reason to only have 3 WRs on your roster catch a pass all year. Even receivers 6th in the depth chart in the NFL expect a few catches each year. Spread the ball around and look at the skills of your backups. Mike Evans catching a screen is not going to be as effective as a smaller more agile player doing so, just like Jakeem Grant is going to struggle in the red zone. 

But to have WR4+ on the field takes vital receptions away from WR1-3. WR4+ have lower Level2 goals and are immune to season goal regression. The clock runoff and length of the games is not conducive to backups coming in too often. Some guys are struggling to get 2+ INTs with the starting DBs resulting in Dev regression. Increasing fatigue will take them off the field too. I'm looking at half my OL and WR2 & WR3 to all regress at the end of the season due to goals. Running takes away from passing, passing takes away from running, choose your play style and accept your regression poison.

Basically we're working with a broken progression system but for the most part it works. Agree with those above that believe simpler is better and what @ParaAUT said, if the league is full there is no spamming CPU games (49ers) and some statistical records are legit (Vikings, Cowboys).
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by Bishbosh1985 on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:54 am

Guys, i need to point out the painfully obvious again - and that is that the NFL real game stats cannot be compared to a video game that is nowhere near realistic.

All we can do is try and get the game as sim as possible, even with the handcuffing constraints EA give us.

Aim for something that's achievable and sustainable - not realism that is an unattainable goal.

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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by ParaAUT on Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:02 am

@Bishbosh1985 wrote:Guys, i need to point out the painfully obvious again - and that is that the NFL real game stats cannot be compared to a video game that is nowhere near realistic.

All we can do is try and get the game as sim as possible, even with the handcuffing constraints EA give us.

Aim for something that's achievable and sustainable - not realism that is an unattainable goal.

Sign (unfortunately).

I guess IF the fatigue slider has an effect and we get a few more rushes from backups, then it's fine. Not so sure IF it's working honestly.
I don't like the idea of having to sub out your star RB just because of stats. You should do it because of the game and to avoid injuries, not to avoid good stats.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

Post by dwevans on Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:46 am

@Bishbosh1985 wrote:Guys, i need to point out the painfully obvious again - and that is that the NFL real game stats cannot be compared to a video game that is nowhere near realistic.

All we can do is try and get the game as sim as possible, even with the handcuffing constraints EA give us.

Aim for something that's achievable and sustainable - not realism that is an unattainable goal.

Not asking for complete realism. I fully appreciate that requires real snap counts, i'm just not asking for first teamers to be in every down like MUT or force fed the ball in what looks like a bid to chase end of season awards.

If we just put rules in place to prevent the level of carries Cook and Elliot have had and the level of receptions Snead has had that improves that and prevents these unrealistic seasons. I believe this is achievable and sustainable.

And Matt, everyone is in the same boat about snap counts so just don't look at the level 1-3 goals. Its pointless.
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Re: Aiming for Sim Stats

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